Holdem: Don't suddenly start bluffing on the river when you miss your draw
Many experienced players (and several amateurs) attempt a bluff as follows: Player X has Qs-Js. The flop is As-Kd-4s, giving X many outs. One player bets, two players call and then X calls. The turn is a 5h. The same player bets again, one player folds, another calls and X calls. The river is a 3d and both players check to X. X suddenly fires in a bet.
From the betting patterns, it is highly probably that one of X’s opponents has a hand like A-10 and the other may have A-7 or perhaps K-J or something like that. In any case, there is no way that X will force both players to fold with this bet on the river. As such, it is a pointless bluff. But sometimes people in X’s situation say to themselves “well the only way I can win the pot now is with a bluff so I’ll fire in a bet and hope.” Bluff need to be well timed to have any chance of success and a bluff in this spot would be very poorly timed and therefore, has very little prospect of success. So if you miss a draw, don’t attempt a bluff simply because it’s your only chance. Only bluff is there is some prospect of success.
For example, if the river was another ace in the above scenario and both players checked to you, then a bluff may have more prospect of success. Since players would rarely check trip aces on the river, it’s fair to say that neither opponent has an ace in the hole. Since you called the whole way, but came out betting when a second ace fell, they may now assume that you have an ace with a small kicker. Even an opponent with K-J in this spot will be in two minds about calling. But then again, if either opponent is the kind of player that would call with a hand like K-J in this spot, you should definitely not attempt a bluff in this spot, simply because it’s your only chance of winning the pot.
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